A new move on the political board has set off new probability theories in the political game of cabinet formation. Even before President Rumen Radev has had the chance of announcing when he would be handing an exploratory mandate for the formation of a govermment to the second biggest parliamentary force, ITN (There Is Such a People) made a surprise move. ITN’s leader Slavi Trifonov announced that the party was nominating former world chess champion Antoaneta Stefanova for prime minister, and that she would hand back the mandate “instantly”. Trifonov motivated this decision with the fact that, as he wrote on Facebook “There Is Such a People do not have the necessary number of MPs or partners to form a stable government.” And that the support it could be given “comes from political entities that are “nocuous, greedy and proven as compromised”.

Slavi Trifonov’s words triggered an instantaneous reaction by his principal political opponent. GERB described this move as “shirking responsibility” and “political cowardice”, while the party’s leader Boyko Borissov said: “Anyone with 165 MPs who have stated their support, who says they are not enough, that he needs 240, is a coward.”

According to Desislava Atanasova, chair of the GERB-SDS parliamentary group the arguments adduced by Slavi Trifonov that his party does not have support make no sense because the parliamentary process has so far demonstrated full support for There Is Such a People. “To my mind that is shirking responsibility, does it mean new elections that will cost another, maybe 50-60 million? By what election rules is that going to happen?” asks Desislava Atanasova.

So, even before the second exploratory mandate has been presented, all eyes are now on the third mandate.

“Ironclad political logic suggests the third mandate could be handed to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and not some other political force,” says political analyst Dimitar Ganev for 24 Chasa newspaper. “There are several reasons for this. The first is that the BSP is the third biggest political force (in parliament) and in this sense the mandate rightfully belongs to the BSP. The second reason is that Rumen Radev will want to be sure of the support of the rank-and-file socialists for the presidential campaign in October. The third reason is that Democratic Bulgaria has already stated it does not want it, so it makes no sense to hand it to them. Handing the mandate to the Movement for Rights and Freedoms would be image-damaging, whereas Stand Up! Thugs Out! is too small a formation to be able to form a government.”

If the President hands a mandate to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the socialists will decide whether to accept it at the BSP’s National Council, commented Bulgarian Socialist Party MP Filip Popov. He says the decision by ITN and its leader Slavi Trifonov to hand back the mandate comes as no surprise because with this act, they are demonstrating that the party is incapable of governing.

Stand Up! Thugs Out! MP Maria Cappone described ITN’s decision as “bizarre”. She is sceptical that a third political force could be capable of forming a government: “The question is who the third mandate will be handed to. But to my mind it is comic – seeing as it is so complicated to have a minority government, to now have a minority of a minority government.”

The chances of a cabinet being formed on the third mandate are extremely slim, commented Borislav Sandov, Democratic Bulgaria MP from the Green Movement:

“So that the chances are we are heading for elections. And they must take place as soon as possible, so that by autumn we can have some kind of stable government,” Borislav Sandov said and added that the responsibility that falls to President Rumen Radev now is enormous, all the more so that in the autumn he too will be in the middle of an election campaign.

When the game will go on to the next level is as yet unclear. Though a foregone conclusion, there is no deadline set down in the constitution for the handing of the second mandate. However, the President cannot take too long about it as this would arouse suspicions among his political opponents. In Dimitar Ganev’s words however, by holding back a few more days the President could give the National Assembly a chance to adopt its legislative initiatives, and then make his next move in the political chess game.

Interviews by Horizont channel, BNR and 24 Chasa newspaper

Editing by Elena Karkalanova

Photos: BGNES