In its winter economic forecast, the European Commission gives a better economic outlook for Bulgaria than it did in its autumn report.

Overall, real GDP is estimated to have increased by 3.9% in 2022, instead of the expected 3.1%. In 2023, real GDP is expected to increase by 1.4% and in 2024 - by 2.5%. Previous estimates were for a 1.1% increase in 2023, and 2.4% in 2024.

In the context of a tight labour market, wages are expected to continue to grow strongly and to sustain household consumption, the report reads. Export growth is forecast to slow down considerably in 2023 given that the factors for further gains in export market share were largely exhausted in 2022 (…) Overall, HICP inflation is set to decline from 13% in 2022 to 7.8% in 2023 on account of lower energy prices, the report reads further.