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This is the best-case scenario: Bulgarians will number 5.1 million by the end of the century, the NSI estimates

Photo: BGNES

Three scenarios are outlined by the National Statistical Institute depending on the expected socio-economic development of the country. 

The first scenario, which is considered realistic and in line with EU standards, is that the country's population will fall to 4.97 million by 2075. People over 65 will account for 25.5% of the population. For every 100 people of working age, there will be 69 people in the dependent age groups - under 15 years and over 64 years. 

The other two scenarios have been developed on the assumption that the demographic development will take place under favourable and unfavourable socio-economic developments. The population will be just over 5.1 million in 2090 under the favourable projection. In the unfavourable case, the population will be less than 4.8 million in 2090. On 31 December 2022, the population stood at 6.44 million.

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