Underwhelming campaign raises fears of another early election next year

published on 10/25/24 2:18 PM

Photo: BTA

The seventh election campaign in the political marathon of the past three years is drawing to a close. Have we heard any ideas for a way out of this crisis? Have the no longer surprising news of vote-buying attempts, which once again failed to reveal the real perpetrators, and the use of the state apparatus to deal with the "political enemy" not overshadowed the timid efforts of the parties to attract voters to their side? We look to the analyses of political scientists and sociologists to navigate us through yet another political action film in which the choice between remaining extras or becoming active participants in changing the status quo is entirely up to us.

On the eve of the early parliamentary elections on 27 October, the sociological agency 'Alpha Research' confirmed the emerging picture - seven parties, plus possibly one more, are expected to enter the 51st National Assembly. Only 30 to 32 per cent of eligible voters are expected to exercise their constitutional right to vote, meaning that some 85 000 votes will be enough to elect one MP, compared with 100 000 previously.

Svetoslav Malinov, head of the political science department at Sofia's St Kliment Ohridski University, agrees with most sociological agencies' predictions of a low turnout, citing a number of facts - frequent elections, lack of new parties, ideas and personalities.

"The argument that there are no new parties is not contradicted by the fact that formations such as Vazrazhdane are entering the National Assembly - after all, we are talking about new political forces with new ideas that directly influence the formation of the government," says the political scientist. - But the great intrigue of these elections will be what happens to the big DPS, with its 47 MPs, and the spectacular and painful split in the party's electorate.

As far as the future parliamentary majority is concerned, two parties will obviously not be enough, even though, according to the polls, GERB and PP-DB are very close to having 120 MPs together in the 240-seat National Assembly. There is a good chance that we will get something more stable than the nine-month rotating government, especially as GERB and PP-DB are not as confrontational as they were four or five elections ago.

In countries with proportional electoral systems, such as Bulgaria, the average life of a government is between two and two-and-a-half years, recalls political analyst Stoycho Stoychev. "What should be sustainable in such an environment is the partnership between the parties. So after the elections we expect some joint action or an attempt to form a coalition," he adds. He says that if politicians were to implement the idea of an equidistant prime minister launched by the We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), it would be "one giant leap for mankind".

"There will be no obstacles for GERB to agree on such a prime minister after the elections - the political scientist continues. - I have a slightly different interpretation - he would not be equidistant, but equiclose. I can outline his profile - a university professor, for example in law, who has had a partnership with both parties over the years and is on good terms with everyone. "

If GERB-SDS and PP-DB manage to form a cabinet, it could be supported in the National Assembly by both wings of the split MRF, according to Stoycho Stoychev.

His colleague Ivo Indzhov says that there is an equal chance of either forming a regular government or going to early elections. Behind the underwhelming and poorly-funded campaign, he believes, the parties are saving their strength, resources and ideas for next year, when a four-year cycle ends - under normal circumstances, that would be the time for parliamentary elections; it will also be four years since the massive anti-government and anti-corruption protests in 2021.

In a year's time, Ivo Indzhov predicts, several new players could appear on the political scene. This is the way to get people interested in politics again, he believes.

The political scientist also mentions some "politically charged" processes accompanying the election campaign, such as the Interior Ministry's actions against vote-buying.

"What politicians hardly comment on, and for which they are responsible to the public, is the rude and arrogant pressure of some parties from the nationalist and populist spectrum against journalists and people with a strong voice on the Internet," Ivo Indzhov points out. All in all, political pressure on the media is being reborn. This is a very serious problem and we need to start talking about it.

Mobilising voters to do their part for our common future is the only chance for change in the country.