Does the tourist industry have reason to fear a drop in the number of tourists coming from Russia and Ukraine this summer due to the events in Crimea? Or will the government's optimistic forecasts of an increased interest by Russia and Ukraine in Bulgaria's resorts prove true?

On the threshold of season 2014, Bulgarian tour operators registered an alarming tourist outflow. They say the reason is in the higher prices of the holiday packages for Ukrainian and Russian tourists due to the curency devaluation after the Crimean events. The abrupt drop in bus and coach services from Ukraine and Russia to Bulgaria’s Black Sea coastline is said to be another reason for this state of affairs - buses have to cross the volatile regions but it is mostly school-goers that use them to reach Bulgaria's seaside camps. Russia and Ukraine are major markets for Bulgarian tourism and a possible outflow could have a serious effect on this sector. According to data in the media in this country, this is precisely what is happening on the threshold of the summer season. Bulgarian tour operators have been sounding the alarm, stating there is a delay in bookings from the two abovementioned countries, without actually adducing any figures. Unofficially it is said there is a drop of 10 – 12 percent in the number of  tourists from the two markets. The situation with children's and student tourism is even more alarming, but there are no concrete data here eitherl. At the same time the Ministry of Economy and Energy has been dishing out forecasts of "cloudless skies" - a successful season and a heightened interest by Ukraine and Russia. Why? The Ministry is citing the 100,000^th visa issued this year by our Moscow embassy to 2-year-old Oksana Shishkina. The Ministry is also saying that tourism is working at full throttle with some 1,133,000 tourists visiting this country in the period January – April 2014 – a 4.1 percent growth on 2013.

“The important thing is that Bulgaria has preserved two very important trends – first, a growth on practically all key markets and second – a huge diversification,” says Deputy Minister of Economy and Energy Branimir Botev. “So, we are not tied down to a single market, where, if problems arise, the entire sector would be affected. I will give the West European and Central European markets as an example - the  growth rate there is 4 – 11 percent. This means that the price – quality ratio in Bulgaria at the moment is competitive.”

In other words, the hopes are that a possible outflow of tourists from Russia and Ukraine would be compensated for by the tourists coming from other countries. The good news in the branch is the unveiling of a regular Varna – Istanbul air services a few days ago. Until recently, Turkish Airlines only flew to Sofia. This new international "air bridge" of a kind will now contribute to a tourist growth, or at least ministry officials are hoping it will. There will be 4 flights a week, and the return ticket costs barely 79 euros. By the way, Istanbul Airport is the giant regional hub flights for Eastern Europe and the Middle East branch out from. So, there may come a time when Bulgaria's Black Sea capital could turn into a direct point for flights from Central and Western Europe. “We see it as a potential market for more than 15 mln. guests,” Deputy Minister Botev says.

But while we are waiting for the inflow of 15 million tourists to overtake us, we can only guess how events in Ukraine will affect the branch, and more importantly, how the tourist industry will react to the unpredictable economic environment in Bulgaria on the eve of the looming early parliamentary elections.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev