Are we fully aware how globalization and high-tech have changed our way of life and even human nature? The world is changing much faster than, say 50 years ago and is now much more unpredictable and at times….scary. So where is the human race heading and what can we expect at the end of the line?

Futurologists from all over the world have been asking these and a host of other questions. Their forward studies are something managers of transnational corporations and world leaders have been taking very seriously. One such prominent futurologist is Dr Mariana Todorova from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Institute for the Study of Societies and Knowledge. Not long ago she took part in the World Future Society forum in Orlando. The congress discussed the tendencies that will shape the future of the human race for decades to come. But do you really have to be a futurologist to realize that things are not going well in the world. According to a recent Pew Research Center Institute survey over 70 percent of the Earth’s population have a negative attitude to the “system” and say it is unjust and does not work. Dr. Todorova explains this pessimism with the growing inequality among people, with the widening gulf between rich and poor, between the countries that are prosperous and the underdeveloped regions in Africa and the Middle East.

“This is the reason why in the past 10 years there have been more protests across the world, than at any other time in human history,” Dr Todorova says and adds:

“New solutions must be sought, a change in the paradigm of the social system, unless that is done futurologists say democracy is in jeopardy. Its foundations are increasingly being discredited and people are beginning to talk about a veneer of democracy. In future, an acceleration of the migration processes due to wars or climatic change is expected and this will bring about the emergence of new super powers and a regrouping in the world in some important regions and metropolises. This will undermine the idea of a national state as such. Scholars say the world will progress towards a soft version of democratic authoritarianism with elements of democracy, but with a firm hand to bridle these processes. To my mind this is a reversion from the achievements of the human race.”

The forecasts with regard to Europe are for an uneven development and an impoverishment of its population. The USA on the other hand will to a great extent lose some of the influence it has due to the growing social problems, the wars and its inept foreign policy, futurologists say. And further – Russia will not be blackmailing Europe for ever in its capacity of chief energy supplier. The reasons?  The economic sanctions imposed on it, its growing isolation and the use of more and more alternative energy sources in the world. But what about Islamic fundamentalism which has been growing to alarming proportions and relying more and more heavily on military force and acts of terrorism?

Are we to expect a globalization of religions and a deepening of religion-based military conflicts?

“That too is something we should expect. We have been observing developments with regard to the Islamic state which was very much underrated. We thought it to be a local phenomenon that can be overcome but in fact its power has been growing over almost the entire territory of Iraq and Syria. Now we are witnessing the birth of a jihad state that is much more ruthless than the Taliban movement. So it is important to look ahead into the future.”

So is the human race which has for hundreds of years been fighting for freedom, equality and democracy now regressing and what are we to expect?

“Life has shown there will always be surprise events,” Dr. Todorova says. “In futurology we call them “black swans” and one of the challenges we face is to “seize” them. This can be described as ignorance about ignorance – we don’t even know that we don’t know anything in a given sphere. That is what makes them unpredictable. One case in point is the Ebola virus or if an asteroid was to collide with the Earth. Life is much more diverse and powerful, so there comes a point when there have to be corrections and turnabouts. So, it cannot be said we are regressing because an evolutionary discovery in science or some other sphere might be made that would lead to a leap in our development, or quite the opposite.”

A “black swan” phenomenon is, for example, the development of the world wide web which has taken over all spheres of life, making the world a global village. And now not a day goes by without our asking ourselves “How could we have lived without the Internet?” One such “black swan” could be… an encounter with extraterrestrial life. NASA futurologists and experts say this may happen in the next 10-20 years. “I really do believe that you and I, within our own lifetime will witness an encounter with an alien intelligence,” Dr. Todorova says. But how such an encounter will affect our lives we can only guess… and keep our fingers crossed that some “black swan” will take us across the murky waters of the unknown to a better future.

English version: Milena Daynova